US Birth Rate Bottomed Out in 2010 According to New 2011 U.S. Fertility Forecast Published by Demographic Intelligence
New Juvenile Product Industry Report Projects Birth Recovery
CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va., April 18, 2011 /
Christian Newswire/ -- The U.S. birth rate has plummeted in the past two years, but may be poised for a recovery depending on the state of the economy according to new research by Demographic Intelligence. The quarterly U.S. Fertility Forecast provides investors and the baby products manufacturing industry with accurate birth rate forecasts in the near term and into 2015.
Demographic Intelligence (DI) today released The U.S. Fertility Forecast™, which projects U.S. fertility from 2010 through 2015 for the juvenile products industry. The report indicates that U.S. births bottomed out in 2010 and are now rising--a good sign for the juvenile products industry, according to
Dr. W. Bradford Wilcox, President of Demographic Intelligence.
Drawing on an extensive analysis of demographic, economic, and cultural trends, the new report provides detailed projections of birth trends in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Specifically, the report estimates overall U.S. births, first births, and births by race, ethnicity, and education for these three years. The report also provides estimates of overall U.S. births in 2015.
Three findings from The U.S. Fertility Forecast™ are particularly noteworthy:
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U.S. births fell more than 7 percent from 4.32 million births in 2007 to 4.01 million births in 2010. Because the federal government has not yet released official birth statistics for 2010, the report's estimate of 2010 births is a projection based on DI's analysis of U.S. demographic trends.
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Given recent changes in the economy and the demographic composition of the population, Wilcox predicts that U.S. births bottomed out in 2010 and are now beginning to rise. "The juvenile products industry has faced a tough market over the last few years, since many Americans cut back on childbearing in the wake of the Great Recession," said Wilcox. "Our analysis indicates that recent improvements in the economy and ongoing growth in the number of women of childbearing age will lead to renewed growth in childbearing in the U.S., which is a good omen for the juvenile products industry."
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Demographic Intelligence has developed a model for projecting U.S. birth trends that has proved about 98 percent accurate in providing estimates for U.S. births in 2007, 2008, and 2009. Wilcox is confident that DI estimates will prove similarly accurate moving forward.
"This new report fills a critical gap for executives and analysts working in the juvenile products industry," noted Wilcox. "After all, the U.S. Census Bureau birth projections are not calibrated to changes in the economy and culture, and academic research doesn't typically provide fine-grained projections of U.S. births on a short- or medium-term basis. Thus, Demographic Intelligence gives companies a clear sense of the demographic road ahead."
Bruce Crain, President and Chief Executive Officer of
Kid Brands, Inc., commented, "We believe that the Demographic Intelligence survey provides valuable insights into both the causes of the recent decline and the anticipated rebound in U.S. births. The forecast corroborates our belief that an improvement in macroeconomic conditions could lead to a more favorable U.S. marketplace over the next few years. We are therefore encouraged by the outlook for U.S. births, as pregnancy intentions and births are a core driver of consumer sales for the infant and juvenile industry and Kid Brands' products specifically. Given our leadership position in the industry and our strategic growth initiatives to expand into new product categories and channels, we believe we are well-positioned to take advantage of any demographic upswing."
The new report is also drawing support from the
Juvenile Products Manufacturers Association. "Reports such as The U.S. Fertility Forecast provide tremendous value to JPMA members allowing them to successfully meet the demands of parents nationwide," commented Jason Macari, Chairman of JPMA.
About Demographic Intelligence
Demographic Intelligence (DI) provides demographic information, analysis, and consulting to companies working in the juvenile products industry. DI produces The U.S. Fertility Forecast™ on a quarterly basis, and also consults with companies interesting in exploring U.S. demographic trends in more detail. Dr. Wilcox is also a professor of sociology and the Director of the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia, where he studies trends in marriage and parenthood in the U.S. Demographic Intelligence is advised in its work by three leading demographers: Princeton economist Alicia Adsera, University of Pennsylvania demographer Hans-Peter Kohler, and Duke University demographer Philip Morgan.
Kid Brands, Inc. and its subsidiaries are leaders in the design, development and distribution of infant and juvenile branded products. The Company's operating business is composed of four wholly-owned subsidiaries: Kids Line, LLC; LaJobi, Inc; Sassy, Inc.; and CoCaLo, Inc. Through these subsidiaries, the Company designs and markets branded infant and juvenile products in a number of complementary categories including, among others: infant bedding and related nursery accessories and décor, food preparation and nursery appliances, and diaper bags (Kids Line® and CoCaLo®); nursery furniture and related products (LaJobi®); and developmental toys and feeding, bath and baby care items with features that address the various stages of an infant's early years (Sassy®).
The Juvenile Products Manufacturers Association is a national trade organization of more than 250 companies in the United States, Canada and Mexico. JPMA exists to advance the interests, growth and well-being of North American prenatal to preschool product manufacturers, importers, and distributors marketing under their own brands to consumers.
